Donald Trump’s Tariffs Could Put America in a Brutal Recession

Recently, we learned that President Donald Trump was perfectly happy to send the American economy into a recession with his trade war — just not a depression. Let that sink in for a moment. The president knew his proposed tariffs might land us in the intensive care unit, but he didn’t want us actually dead. 

If Trump were on trial for murdering our economy, this would be like his lawyer arguing to the judge that he should be tried for second-degree murder, rather than first degree. ‘Your honor, we concede that the President absolutely planned to beat the living daylights out of us. But he never meant to kill us. I swear.’ 

Since Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2, we’ve learned a lot about whom the president is willing to sacrifice and for what. He was perfectly happy to wipe out our retirement accounts overnight. He had no problem raising prices on everything from gas to groceries to clothing to baby strollers and car seats. The fact he was willing to lead the country into a recession means he also had no particular hesitation about adding millions of Americans to the ranks of the unemployed either.

In the years of economic growth we’ve seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, it’s possible Trump and his billionaire Cabinet have forgotten just what a recession can look like. The wealthy few may be able to ride out an economic downturn while their investment portfolios take a hit. But for working-class families across the country, recessions are devastating, and the scarring effects are long-lasting. 

After the housing crash in 2008, millions of families lost their jobs and their homes. Parents couldn’t feed their kids or afford necessary medical care, and found themselves buried by debt. Children whose parents were laid off suffered disruption to their education and development, and continue to feel the reverberations today. Co-eds who graduated from college during that crisis still have lower earnings than their peers who graduated just a few years earlier or later. People don’t magically recover from recessions in a matter of months, or even a few years.  

But a Trump-manufactured recession could be all that and worse. First, families usually get some relief on prices during a recession, as demand lags. But it is quite possible we could see sustained high prices, and even shortages, throughout a Trump recession because of his tariffs. This toxic combination — higher unemployment, lower growth, and higher inflation — is called “stagflation,” and it makes the Federal Reserve’s job to manage interest rates and fight the downturn even more difficult. And while recessions always hit small businesses hard, this one could be an extinction-level event for companies that don’t have the same power to negotiate deals with giant global suppliers and wholesalers as their larger counterparts do.

Meanwhile, because Elon Musk has spent the last three months kneecapping the administrative state with his so-called Department of Government Efficiency, Americans who lose their jobs or see reductions in income will have a harder time accessing the crucial safety net programs that they can usually rely on when times are tough. Because of cuts to the Social Security Administration, the Health and Human Services Department, the United States Department of Agriculture, and more, families who need health coverage, food assistance, and Social Security checks are already facing delays. This backlog will only grow as need increases during a recession. 

And Republicans in Congress just advanced a budget that would slash funding for Medicaid and SNAP (food assistance), two safety-net programs that will be essential for millions of Americans during a recession. 

While recessions typically increase inequality, this one could be even more unequal than usual. Working class Americans will bear the disproportionate brunt of the price hikes and job losses, while the wealthiest Americans are poised to benefit from trillions in dollars worth of tax breaks that Republicans in Congress are working to extend later this year.  

From Trump to Musk to Republican lawmakers, we are getting a crash course in what happens when conservatives get the keys to our economy. The level of chaos, mismanagement, and self-inflicted harm is stunning. It’s no surprise Americans are feeling buyer’s remorse. Public approval of Trump’s handling of the economy is at just 37 percent. 

Trump may be the first president in history to deliberately put the United States economy into a recession. Once that happens, it would be difficult for even a skilled manager of the economy to ensure that the economic devastation doesn’t cut too deep. Recessions can take on a life of their own, spiralling downward more quickly than you expect — and as he’s showing us, Trump is not a skilled manager of the economy.