Who Could Potentially Step In?

Age: 59

Title: Vice president of the United States

Why she could beat Trump: As vice president Harris is the first — and obvious — choice to replace Biden, who expressed his full confidence in her abilities to stand as president in his recent NATO press conference. (There would also likely be political hell to pay if another Democrat were to leapfrog Harris to the top of the ticket, given Harris’ strong resonance with Black women who are the backbone of the party.) Harris’ background as a prosecutor and state attorney general offer her a powerful line of attack against Donald Trump and his 34 felony convictions. Harris is a sharp debater and her gender, race, mental clarity, and relative youth would offer America a chance to turn the page from the past eight years of white, male gerontocracy. Polling broadly shows that replacing Biden with Harris would offer a small boost to Democratic chances of retaining the White House.

Why she might not: America is a racist, sexist country. Reactionary right-wing attacks on Harris as a “Diversity Equity and Inclusion” candidate have already begun, and would likely define the campaign through November — as would attacks on Harris as an effete Californian. Harris did not run a strong organization in her 2020 bid for the Democratic nomination, and despite entering that contest as a frontrunner ended up withdrawing before the Iowa caucus. Harris was also given a politically toxic portfolio to begin her vice presidency, including management of the migrant crisis at the border. In an election where securing the border ranks as a top concern for millions of voters, and the GOP is demagoging a supposed wave of “migrant crime,” that record could haunt her.

Age: 52

Title: Governor of Michigan

Why she could beat Trump: Whitmer is a popular governor, in a critical battleground state, who overperformed electoral expectations both when she won office in 2018, and in her 2022 reelection. Whitmer styles herself as a progressive Democrat, has supported a largely progressive policy agenda in her governance of her state, and her campaigns have successfully secured Democratic control of the Michigan legislature. 

During her governorship, Whitmer has been taking calculated steps onto the national stage, including by delivering the 2020 State of the Union rebuttal. She was in the running to become President Biden’s running mate that same year. Whitmer has hinted at a run for the presidency in the future, quipping that she would “see you in 2029,” during a speech In Washington, D.C., earlier this year.

Why she might not: Whitmer may be unwilling to sacrifice her own presidential ambitions and political future for a largely unprecedented gamble in a volatile moment within Democratic politics. While Whitmer was a member of the Michigan Senate before assuming the governorship, she has little experience working with the national Congress. Recent polling also shows that Whitmer tends to underperform in a head-to-head matchup against Trump.

Age: 56

Title: Governor of California

Why he could beat Trump: Newsom is an experienced executive, having led the world’s fifth-largest economy since 2019, at a time when it has transitioned into a green energy powerhouse. Newsom presents as sharp, forward looking, and energetic. He’s been one of Biden’s most effective surrogates, and has a knack for getting himself in front of cameras — including by staging a 2023 debate with Florida’s Ron DeSantis, in which he clearly got the better of the Florida governor. Newsom is battle tested — having survived a recall election driven by right-wing bad actors — and is an agile defender of the moral values of America who can prosecute the case about why a second Trump term poses a mortal threat to the republic.

Why he might not: California is a state of booms and busts. Unfortunately for Newsom’s present political case, it is now busting. The state is having to make bone-deep budget cuts to close a projected $68 billion deficit, even as it contends with out-of-control housing costs. As the former longtime mayor of San Francisco, Newsom is also easy to caricature as an out-of-touch blue state liberal, a label he reinforced during the pandemic by flouting lockdown protocols to dine at the French Laundry. While Newsom is a polished communicator, he can sometimes come across as slick as his hairdo.

Age: 59

Title: Governor of Illinois

Why he could beat Trump: A successful second-term governor who is uber-wealthy, and not afraid to throw a punch, Pritzker is already living in Trump’s head, with his attacks on the former president’s felony conviction and history of lying generating unusually petty retorts — even for Trump — on Truth Social. Pritzker has been a more progressive governor than many observers anticipated, which has helped him cultivate a small but devoted leftist fanbase on social media.

The billionaire Democrat has led the charge to protect abortion access after Trump’s appointees on the Supreme Court helped overturn Roe v. Wade. Pritzker and Illinois Democrats have turned the state into an abortion safe zone — and he’s leveraged his considerable fortune to finance ballot measures supporting reproductive rights in swing states. He also put tens of millions of dollars of his own money into an effort to increase taxes on the rich; the proposal failed, but he would offer a strong argument against Republicans who are planning to again slash taxes paid by the wealthiest Americans.

Why he might not: Pritzker would certainly bring cash and attitude to a race against Trump. But he would enter the presidential election as a virtually blank slate. One recent poll found that 75 percent of registered voters don’t know who he is. To this point, Pritzker has been considered a potential contender for 2028 — and he might benefit from more time to build his name ID.

Age: 51

Title: Governor of Pennsylvania

Why he could beat Trump: Shapiro has been governor less than two years, but he is quite popular — and receives unusually high marks among Republicans. He’s perceived as a moderate Democrat, but he’s not a squish. Shapiro has quickly developed cross-partisan appeal in a vital swing state despite actively taking on Trump and his MAGA election deniers. As Pennsylvania’s attorney general, he helped block their efforts to overturn the 2020 election. He went on to win big in his 2022 race for governor, in part by frequently campaigning in Trump strongholds. 

One of Shapiro’s biggest assets is he projects competence at a time when there’s exceedingly little to be found in government. When a portion of Interstate 95 collapsed in Philadelphia last summer, Shapiro swung into action. His administration was able to reopen the exceptionally busy highway in 12 days — winning widespread plaudits.

Why he might not: Shapiro has only been governor for less than two years, and as you might expect, most Americans do not know who he is. A recent poll found that 69 percent of likely voters are unfamiliar with Shapiro. If he maintains his popularity in Pennsylvania, he will surely be discussed as a future contender for national office — but it’s probably too soon to run him now.

Age: 42

Title: United States Secretary of Transportation

Why he could beat Trump: He’s young, he’s smart, he’s Mayor Pete. Buttigieg has all the credentials of an aspiring presidential nominee: an Ivy League education, a military service record, a proven track record in local politics (as mayor of South Bend, Indiana), and a Cabinet appointment that gives him ample opportunity to smack down Republicans on the national stage.

Buttigieg rose to national prominence during the 2020 election cycle. His long-shot bid for the presidency quickly turned into a legitimate candidacy, and before dropping out he became the first openly gay candidate to win a Democratic primary. Buttigied is a young, savvy political mind able to straddle the rift between the progressive and more moderate wings of the Democratic Party, and, crucially, an extremely effective communicator who could effectively highlight the dangers of a second Trump administration while promoting the accomplishments of Biden’s first.

Why he might not: With youth come accusations of inexperience. In his first bid for the presidency, the majority of attacks against Buttigieg focused on his lack of practical experience in national-level politics. Throughout his career, he’s also faced homophobic attacks over his sexual orientation and identity as a gay man. Since his failed run for the White House, the former mayor has served in a cabinet-level position, and while he has had some policy wins and viral moments testifying before Congress, he’s largely become a secondary character in the drama of the administration. To be blunt, he’s lost some ground as a prominent national figure. 

On top of that, the nation is still waiting for an apology over being forced to endure the cringe-fest that was the “High High Hopes” dance.

Age: 46

Title: Governor of Kentucky

Why he could beat Trump: Beshear has youth and, more importantly, won the governorship of a deep-red state in the heart of the MAGA era — which means he could have the broad appeal to win over independents and maybe even some disaffected Trump voters. A Morning Consult poll released late last year found that he was the nation’s most popular Democratic governor among Trump supporters, with 41 percent of them approving of his performance. He also has the highest net approval of any Democratic governor in a red state at 60 percent.

Why he might not: Beshear is a rising star in the Democratic Party, but he’s relatively unknown nationally, and it’s going to be hard for someone with low name recognition to launch a presidential campaign from scratch four months before the election. He also wouldn’t even be  likely to carry his home state against Trump, where other options like Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro could potentially give Democrats a huge boost in critical battleground states.

Age: 45

Title: Governor of Maryland

Why he could beat Trump: While Moore is a long-shot candidate to replace Biden, his profile as a compelling public speaker, savvy legislator, and activist has grown his standing among the next generation of Democratic politicians. Moore won the governorship of the Free State in 2022 on a platform of “work, wages, and wealth.” His landslide victory crowned him the third elected Black governor in American history. Since taking office, Moore has hewed to a progressive platform of police reform, increased funding to public education, gun control, and health care reform.

Why he might not: The governor has been a staunch supporter of President Biden, even as concerns over the president’s health continue to put pressure on his campaign. “The president has always had our backs. We’re going to have his back as well,” he said in the days after Biden’s disastrous debate and has continued to be one of the most ardent backers of the president. 

While Moore is a rising star, he may not yet have the experience or national recognition to effectively speed-run a campaign into the White House.